Pandemic Dynamics

By Fernando Menezes Campello de Souza

Book Code: 871356

Categories

Public policy, Differential equations, Epidemiology, Life sciences, Biostatistics, Health & fitness, Medical, Didactic, Mathematics, Biological sciences

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Synopsis

Pandemic Dynamics is a data-driven guide to understanding epidemics, tracing COVID-19 from Brazil’s earliest weeks (Feb–Mar 2020) to a global view. Built on ordinary differential equations and the Kermack–McKendrick SIR framework, it shows how models reveal transmission, severity, policy impacts, and the unequal burdens in a highly connected world. Using official Brazilian (including Pernambuco) and international statistics, the book moves from fundamentals to applied insights across epidemiology, decision theory, information systems, and evolutionary biology. Inside you’ll find: A clear build-up of population-growth and epidemic models centered on SIR. Scenario analyses (e.g., lockdown effectiveness; roles of social isolation, contagion, recovery). A probabilistic reduction of SIR to a single equation and a “Topdown” SIR with strong empirical fit, plus a parameter-free approximate solution. Linear dynamical models and a “Global Village” view, with case studies across countries and within Brazil. For researchers, students, health professionals, and policy makers seeking rigorous tools—and a coherent narrative—to act before the next pandemic.

Features

Number of pages 498
Edition 1 (2025)
Format 16x23 (160x230)
Binding Paperback w/ flaps
Colour Colour
Paper type Coated Silk 90g
Language English

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Fernando Menezes Campello de Souza

Fernando Menezes Campello de Souza, PhD (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY) foi professor visitante na University of Warwick, em Coventry, na Inglaterra, na École Nationale Superieure d'Eletrotechnique, d'Electronique, d'Informatique et d'Hydraulique de Toulouse, na França, e na University of Alberta, em Edmonton, no Canadá. Exerce atividades de consultoria relativas à análise de dados, suporte à decisão, pesquisa operacional, sistemas educacionais, sistemas de controle e otimização de processos e engenharia

biomédica, com ênfase em cardiologia. Entre as suas áreas de interesse estão os sistemas dinâmicos e os fundamentos filosóficos e matemáticos da probabilidade, inferência estatística e teoria da decisão. É autor dos livros ``Decisões Racionais em Situações de Incerteza'' e ``O Apoio ao Diagnóstico Médico: o que se pode fazer com um tensiômetro e um relógio. É radioamador, prefixo PY7ARJ, e gosta de música, toca um pouco de violão. Dá aulas de matemática em instituições filantrópicas.

Fernando Menezes Campello de Souza, PhD (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY), was a visiting professor at the University of Warwick in Coventry, England; at the École Nationale Supérieure d'Électrotechnique, d'Électronique, d'Informatique et d'Hydraulique de Toulouse in France; and at the University of Alberta in Edmonton, Canada. He engages in consulting activities related to data analysis, decision support, operations research, educational systems, control systems and process optimization, and biomedical engineering, with an emphasis on cardiology. His areas of interest include dynamic systems, and the philosophical and mathematical foundations of probability, statistical inference, and decision theory. He is the author of the books "Rational Decisions in Uncertain Situations" and "Support for Medical Diagnosis: What Can Be Done with a Blood Pressure Monitor and a Watch." He is a ham radio operator, call sign PY7ARJ, and enjoys music; he plays a little guitar. He teaches mathematics at philanthropic institutions.

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